(JJ Hurley)
Paddy Powers have nailed their colours to the mast as they suggest Michael Collins, Independent Ireland, is 1/100 to be first past the post in Friday’s election in the Cork South West Constituency.
Collins, who heads up Independent Ireland, topped the poll in West Cork in the 2020 election, exceeding the quota, something the bookies believe is odds on to be repeated in 2024.
Evidence from the recent local election seems to back the bookies, with Collin’s brothers, John elected in the Kinsale/Bandon Municipal Area and Danny elected in the Bantry LEA.
Adding to that success was the election of Daniel Sexton elected to the Skibbereen LEA.
Along with the impressive vote success for the party in the recent local elections, Collins had garnished an impressive profile as a result of his ongoing provision of buses for medical procedures in the north of Ireland.
Second on the list to come home is Fine Gael first timer, Noel O’Donovan, elected to the Skibbereen LEA in the recent election, he previously held a council seat before he decided to join the Gardai.
In 2020, there were calls within in the ranks of the Fine Gael party to add him to the ticket as he departed the Gardai to pursue a career in politics again, but he remained off the ballot.
Situated in the centre of the constituency, it looks like the bookies favour O’Donovan over Senator Tim Lombard, who is somewhere behind in the betting at 9/4.
Lombard looks like he will have a lot to do if he is to close on O’ Donovan at 3/10.
Off to O’Donovan’s left in Clonakilty is the leader of the Social Democrats, Holly Cairns,
Coming in at ½, helped no doubt by the election of Ann Bambury and Isobel Towse, both of who scored well in the local elections in June.
Along with her national profile, it looks like the turf accountants are confident she will hold her seat.
In danger of losing his seat is the current Fianna Fail Deputy Christopher O’ Sullivan at 8/11.
With the party losing ground in the Bandon/Kinsale LEA as former poll topper Gillian Coughlan (FF) saw her vote fall and Sean O’ Donovan (FF) lost his seat, which may suggest trouble for O’Sullivan.
It might be the bookies think O’Sullivan has to much ground to make up.
There is of course the curse that has afflicted all first time Fianna Fail Deputies in the constituency, since 1977, losing their seats the next time out, including the late Joe Walsh, Denis O’Donovan Christy O’Sullivan (Snr) and Margaret Murphy O’Mahony.
He also hails from the same neck of the woods as O’Donovan and in a straight fight it looks like the bookies are siding with the FG man to take the votes in Clonakilty.
Alan Coleman, who topped the Bandon LEA in June, is on 20/1, with the bookies not confident he will be in the shake up.
The odds might stem from a similar position in the last general election, which saw a lower vote for him in the national poll in comparison to his performance in the local election of 2018.
Other odds candidates’ odds include Claire O’Callaghan (SF) 25/1, Mary Ryder (Green) 66/1, Evie Nevin Labour 80/1, Deborah O’Driscoll (The Irish People) 100/1, Mairead Ruane 200/1, Zoe Lapland (PBP) 200/1.
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